Ewing Theory Standings
| Team | Star | Games Missed | Record Without Him | Winning Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | Carmelo Anthony | 11 | 7-4 | 64% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Kevin Love | 11 | 2-9 | 18% |
| Miami Heat | Dwyane Wade | 17 | 14-3 | 82% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Kobe Bryant | 8 | 5-3 | 63% |
| San Antonio Spurs | Tony Parker | 6 | 3-3 | 50% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Zach Randolph | 38 | 24-14 | 63% |
| New Jersey Nets | Deron Williams | 11 | 1-10 | 9% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Chris Paul | 6 | 3-3 | 50% |
| Chicago Bulls | Derrick Rose | 32 (5 post-season) | 19-13 (1-4 post-season) | 59% |
| Toronto Raptors | Andrea Bargnani | 35 | 10-25 | 29% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Kyrie Irving | 15 | 4-11 | 27% |
Grantland founder and former ESPN columnist Bill Simmons introduced “the Ewing Theory” to the basketball world back in 2009. Though the theory is intended to deal with long-term success like championships, we’ll have updated standings every time a star player misses a game. Just so you know, I am defining a “star” as someone who uses 25% of his teams possessions, so Stephen Curry and Ray Allen just missed the cut.
Here are some notes on the results so far:
End of season: At the end of the year the only two players that I think you can make an interesting case for Ewing Theory candidates are Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony. I’m of the opinion that the Miami Heat were better without Wade and I think that if he missed all of next season Miami’s title chances wouldn’t be impacted at all. Of course, he’s a great player with a proven track record of winning, so he isn’t a perfect candidate. Carmelo is a much more interesting candidate because his teams have never had great post-season success and his style of play seems to contradict that of every teammate he has. Now that LeBron has his title, Melo will likely be the focus of all of the media scrutiny for the upcoming season and it may not be undue. If Carmelo doesn’t make any adjustments to better suit his team, the Knicks may have been cursed with another Patrick Ewing.
1/7/11: The Miami Heat haven’t lost without Dwyane Wade because they also employ LeBron James. That said, they also played a game without Wade or James, which is when having Chris Bosh on the team came in handy. LeBron put up 33 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds against the Pacers without Wade and after missing a game against the Hawks, he threw together 32 points (on 11-of-17 shooting) with nine assists and two rebounds. As the lone member of the Big Three that played against the Hawks, Chris Bosh led the Heat to a triple overtime victory with 33 points, 14 rebounds and five assists.
1/7/11: The Spurs haven’t missed a beat without Manu Ginobili, mostly because they have shot the lights out from beyond the arc. Against Golden State, who Stephen Curry to an injury during the game, in their first game without Ginobili, the Spurs hit 10 of their 17 three’s (good for 59%) and won close. They followed that up by hitting 16 three’s on 49% shooting against the Mavericks in a blowout. Though the three wasn’t there as often against Denver (they still made nine of 20), Danny Green had a career game: 24 points on nine-of-13 shooting, three-of-four from deep, seven rebounds, two assists, two blocks and two steals.
Here is Simmons’ explanation of the theory:
The theory was created in the mid-’90s by Dave Cirilli, a friend of mine who was convinced that Patrick Ewing’s teams (both at Georgetown and with New York) inexplicably played better when Ewing was either injured or missing extended stretches because of foul trouble.
Curious to see if this phenomenon applied to other stars/teams, Dave noticed people were pencilling in the ’94-’95 UConn Huskies for a .500 season because “superstar” Donyell Marshall had departed for the NBA. Dave knew better; a lifelong UConn fan, he thought the Huskies relied too much on Marshall the previous season and could survive without him. Like Ali predicting the first Liston knockout, Dave told friends the Huskies would thrive in Marshall’s absence — and that’s exactly what happened. By midseason, UConn was ranked No. 1 in the country for the first time in school history; the Ewing Theory had been hatched.
Dave introduced me to the Ewing Theory three years ago, and we’ve been tinkering with it like Voltaire and Thoreau ever since. Eventually, we decided that two crucial elements needed to be in place for any situation to qualify for “Ewing” status:
A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his teams never win anything substantial with him (other than maybe some early-round playoff series).
That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) — and both the media and fans immediately write off the team for the following season.
When those elements collide, you have the Ewing Theory.
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